On Monday, Padres’ third baseman Manny Machado collected career hits 1,999, 2,000 and 2,001. While the first two were singles, the third was a home run, the 15th of the season and 357th of his career.
Machado, who turned 33 on July 6, is now batting .293/.354/.484 with a 132 OPS+ on the season, which is to say he’s doing what’s typical for him, and has been for years and years now: his career line is .280/.339/.488, and considering he’s spent the last seven years of it in a pitcher’s park, that’s even better than it looks.
Given that Machado is still performing at a high level even as he moves toward his mid-30s, and that he’s passed two significant milestones this year alone — both his 2,000th hit and 350th career homer — it’s fair to wonder just how far he can get on both accounts before he calls it a career. Consider: in all of MLB history, Machado is just the 12th player to reach the 2,000-hit and 350-homer thresholds by his age-32 season.
The others are Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Henry Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez. Another way to say that is that it’s eight Hall of Famers, three players who have already retired and will get to Cooperstown eventually, and Machado, whose ticket seems more and more likely to be punched by the day.
What are Machado’s chances at 3,000 career hits and 500 home runs? Not great, in the sense that the chances for anyone to perform these dual feats is historically low: just 28 players have ever hit at least 500 home runs, and 33 players have collected at least 3,000 hits. Of those, just seven of them have membership in both clubs: Willie Mays (3,283 hits, 660 homers), Henry Aaron (3,771, 755), Eddie Murray (3,255, 504), Rafael Palmeiro (3,020, 569), Alex Rodriguez (3,115, 696), Albert Pujols (3,384, 703) and Miguel Cabrera (3,174, 511).
Manny Machado collected his 2,000th career hit on Monday, and then added no. 2,001 – a home run – later on for good measure. (Photo by Brendon Baranov/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
There are also just 18 players who have managed 500 home runs and even 2,500 career hits. Ernie Banks, Manny Ramirez and Reggie Jackson stopped shy of 2,600 hits. Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams and Gary Sheffield all fell short of 2,700, while Ken Griffey Jr. didn’t make it to 2,800. Babe Ruth and Mel Ott failed to reach 2,900 hits, and neither Barry Bonds nor Frank Robinson reached 3,000. Look at those names: as said, Machado’s odds are not great.
However, having “not great” odds is a lot different than saying there isn’t any chance at all. Compared to the vast majority of players, given where Machado is, his chances aren’t all that bad. It depends on quite a few things, however, and we’re going to have to guess at what Machado will do over the next seven or eight years to figure all of that out.
Machado’s 2025 began with exactly 1,900 hits; he’s on pace to finish the season with 182 if he plays in all 162 of the Padres’ games (he’s appeared in all 90 of them to this point). He also started the season with 342 homers, and is on pace to finish with 27. Let’s scale both of those back a little, just to be a bit conservative with things, and say Machado finishes the season with 2,075 hits and 367 home runs. He’ll be 41 years old when his contract with the Padres ends — it runs through 2033, and while it will be his age-40 season, his birthday is in July.
Assuming Machado actually does play through the duration of the contract, that gives him eight years to hit those marks. For hits, he would need to average 116 per season to reach 3,000, and for home runs, 17 per year. Those are fairly reasonable, but you have to remember a few things. Machado could get hurt and miss most or all of a season, or the injury could significantly and adversely impact his play that year. If it happens earlier, that’s a larger issue than it happening later on, considering the assumption that Machado will get slightly worse at this as he ages: basically, the best time to rack up the hits and homers is right now.
What Machado really needs to do is load up in the present: finish this year out on the pace he’s on, then pick up another, say, 150 hits and 20 home runs in 2026, which would lower the remaining seven-year requirements to 111 hits and 16 home runs per year. A few seasons of those kinds of performances will make the assumed decline of Machado much less of a problem in terms of chasing these milestones, since the necessary averages would continue to decline rather than remain static.
If Manny Machado is to reach 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, his swing will have to look like it did on Monday for year to come. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
And you should assume decline for everyone. Not every player can pull a David Ortiz, and just continue to be a force of nature at the end of their career. Players miss time — Mike Trout was more than halfway to 3,000 career hits as of the end of 2022, and he’s played in just 175 games since. They wash out in their mid-30s, and don’t even make it to the part so many Hall of Famers have, where they make it across the milestone finish line, barely, as they approach 40. No one could get Manny Ramirez out until they could. Babe Ruth was a lock for 3,000 hits, leading the league in homers even at age 36 while collecting 199 hits overall, until he suddenly wasn’t. Machado might be a special case who just keeps being a productive hitter until he hangs up his cleats — the kind of player Freddie Freeman’s mid-30s seem to be suggesting he can be, the kind that Adrian Beltre already was for the Rangers — but those are rarities we marvel at for a reason.
This all just emphasizes that the most important thing for Machado, in the present, is to continue to play this well – and uninterrupted – for as long as possible. When the season began, 3,000 hits looked like a serious long shot. It’s still a long shot, but if he continues to play like he has to this point in 2025 for the rest of the year, it’s less of one. And if he does it again in 2026, then the distance grows shorter once more.
And if Machado can’t quite get to 3,000 hits? Well, there are those 18 players who have managed 2,500 hits and 500 home runs, and joining their ranks is a marvel all its own: 15 of those made it to at least 2,600 hits, 12 to 2,700, 11 to 2,800, and nine to 2,900. If Machado does get to 3,000 hits, but can’t make it to 500 home runs? Well, just 12 players have managed 3,000 hits and at least 400 home runs, and 11 made it to at least 450 long balls. Think of all of the many, many players to pick up a bat in MLB’s history, which spans parts of three centuries at this point: all of 29 of those made it to even 2,500 hits and 400 home runs.
Which is to say that Machado entered rarefied air on Monday night by getting to 2,000 hits and 350 homers as quickly as he did, and for as long as he keeps hitting well enough to take the field, the clubs he earns membership in will be that much more exclusive. Maybe he will make it all the way to 3,000 hits and 500 home runs. The odds are against him, but in this respect, they’re against everyone: he’s already been defying them by even getting to this point, and if he can stay on the field and avoid collapsing, like so many other players have before him, then he’ll keep on beating them. It’s both as simple and as complicated as that.
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